Between the war in Iran and high gas prices, President Trump needs to regain the voters’ confidence ahead of the November midterm elections.
ELISSA NADWORNY, HOST:
Back here at home, it’s a politically perilous moment for President Trump and his party. He’s been saying for weeks that the war with Iran is nearly over, and he’s trying to deliver an economic message, but keeps stepping on his own toes. NPR’s senior political correspondent, Tamara Keith, joins us now for more. Good morning, Tam.
TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Good morning.
NADWORNY: So Iran announced yesterday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Of course, that was short-lived. How much of an issue is this for President Trump with the war in Iran?
KEITH: He is sending every signal that he possibly can that he wants this war to be over, but he doesn’t really get to decide when it’s over because the U.S. isn’t the only side in this negotiation. Yesterday, Trump said the U.S. is taking a tough stand, and it’s working out very well. He suggested there would be more information by the end of the day, but then there was no update. Trump spent the afternoon at his golf course, and then in the evening, he sent a flurry of social media posts, mostly just videos and a forwarded post that reinforces his views about the 2020 election being stolen from him.
Trump needs the Strait of Hormuz open to get oil prices down, and he needs to be able to say Iran can’t resume its nuclear program because that’s a red line he drew. But that is especially tough. You might remember the Obama administration negotiated with other countries in Iran for some two years to get that nuclear deal, and Trump is trying to get it done in a couple of weeks after starting a war. The markets did rally on Friday pricing in the idea that the strait was open and a deal was near, but it looks a lot further away at this moment.
NADWORNY: Yeah. So Trump needs to get a hold of the economy ahead of the November midterms. He’s obviously trying to make things seem like they’re OK. Here he is speaking last week in Las Vegas.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Don’t forget, we’re having some fake inflation because of the fuel. The energy prices, which everybody said was going to 250. We’re talking about that, Scott. They said, 250, $300. I mean, today – what was it? – it finished at $89 or $90, right?
NADWORNY: Fake inflation, Tam?
KEITH: It’s not fake inflation. It’s real. Yes, when it was looking like a deal to end the war was imminent, oil prices did fall, but gas is still averaging about $4 a gallon in the U.S. That’s up more than a dollar since the start of the war. That is real money, especially for people struggling to get by as it is. The Biden administration, when President Biden was in office, called inflation transitory, and they were roundly mocked for downplaying a serious problem. Now Trump is calling it fake inflation, which, again, flies in the face of what people are feeling, and it’s never a good place to be as president, telling people their feelings aren’t real.
NADWORNY: Right. And affordability was already going to be this major issue in the midterm elections. Now we’ve got six weeks of these elevated gas prices with no clear end in sight. I mean, Trump was asked specifically about this last night by an anchor on Fox Business.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
MARIA BARTIROMO: Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?
TRUMP: I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be. It could be – or the same, or maybe a little bit higher. I think this won’t be that much longer.
NADWORNY: That seems like a pretty mixed message there.
KEITH: Yeah. In the same breath, he is saying that gas prices could be the same or higher and that it won’t be much longer. Then a couple of days later, he said he had been misquoted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put some more precision on it and said that gas should be down to $3 a gallon sometime between late June and late September. But a reminder that President Trump campaigned on $2-a-gallon gas, and right now, that is very far in the rearview mirror.
This past week was supposed to be all about an economic message and touting the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that Trump signed last year. There was even a stunt at the White House, where he got McDonald’s delivered to the Oval Office by the DoorDash Grandma to highlight no tax on tips. But that turned into an impromptu press conference about a posting that he put up of an AI image of himself as Jesus, which he then claimed was actually depicting him as a doctor, and his mostly one-sided feud with the pope. That is not a clear, focused economic message that Republicans can run on in November.
NADWORNY: Yeah. Well, before we even get to November, there’s an election this week in Virginia to decide whether the state’s lawmakers can redraw congressional districts to favor Democrats. New districts could give Democrats a boost ahead of the November elections. What can you tell us about that, Tam?
KEITH: I can tell you I live in Virginia and my mailbox is full of mailers all about this – conflicting mailers. This special election is getting a lot of attention and a lot of spending because it could have a huge impact on the balance of power in Congress next year. As a reminder, this is just the latest front in the redistricting battles that President Trump kicked off by pressing Texas Republicans to redraw their district lines in favor of Republicans. Then California voters approved a mid-decade redistricting that could end up offsetting Texas. Now there’s Virginia. This is just an ongoing redistricting arms race, but it is nearing its end because primaries are coming.
NADWORNY: Yes. That is NPR’s senior political correspondent, Tamara Keith. Thank you.
KEITH: You’re welcome.
Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.
Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.