SpaceX Could Rally 87% as Wall Street Goes All-In

Quick Read

• SpaceX (SPCX) entered the Nasdaq 100 at 3x its float, triggering $4.3B in passive buying just 15 days after its IPO.

• Morgan Stanley set a $300 price target implying 87% upside, though expiring insider lockups threaten to offset QQQ-driven passive demand.

• Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ: SPCX) arrival on the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) benchmark is the fastest mega-cap onboarding the NASDAQ has ever executed. CNBC’s Morgan Brennan laid out the mechanics on air Tuesday morning. “SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq 100. That will happen at the start of trading officially later this morning,” Brennan told viewers, framing the move as a defining moment. Brennan then walked through why the inclusion matters so much for near-term price action. She also mentioned why the setup is more complicated than a clean tailwind.

What Morgan Brennan Said And Why It Matters

“The company joining the index just 15 days after its stock market debut on June 12th, among the fastest inclusions ever thanks to Nasdaq’s revised rules for newly listed companies,” Brennan said. The revised NASDAQ framework lets qualifying mega-caps skip the traditional seasoning period, and SpaceX is the first name large enough to test it in practice.

The float mechanics are what created the passive bid. “According to a recent JPMorgan estimate, it enters the Nasdaq 100 at three times its raw float of $75 billion. That translates to an index weight of about 1.3%. That inclusion is expected to unleash a wave of passive buying for mutual funds and ETFs that track the index, an estimated $4.3 billion,” Brennan noted. Because index funds must own the stock in proportion to its weighting, that rebalancing happens mechanically by rule.

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Brennan flagged the offsetting risk without softening it. “While that inclusion could put upward pressure on the stock, upcoming expiring lock-ups, and there is a tranche of them, could likely add downward pressure as insiders begin to unload shares.”

The Sell-Side Is Overwhelmingly Bullish

“Half a dozen Wall Street firms are initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating. Morgan Stanley, the most bullish of the bunch, giving it a $300 price target, implying an 87% gain from Monday’s close of $160.42,” Brennan said. Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley anchored the highest target.