A high-stakes U.S. Senate Race in Texas is expected to be a bitter contest : NPR

SCOTT DETROW, HOST:

Democrats are feeling just a little more optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate after last night’s Republican runoff in Texas. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the race against longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn by a landslide after an endorsement from President Trump. He will face the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, this fall in a race that will likely be one of the most expensive and high-profile contests on the map. Texas is, of course, deep red, and Democrats haven’t won statewide in decades, but Paxton has a controversial track record. Joining us to discuss what this all means for the race ahead is The Texas Newsroom’s Blaise Gainey. Hey, Blaise.

BLAISE GAINEY, BYLINE: Hey.

DETROW: Tell us more about what we need to know about Ken Paxton.

GAINEY: Yeah. He’s a lawyer by trade and served in the Texas House and Senate before becoming attorney general, and he’s currently completing his third term in that seat. But what you will likely hear a lot about is his scandal and divorce. He was indicted on securities fraud charges, although he didn’t have to admit guilt to those. He also survived an impeachment vote in 2023 that centered around using his power as attorney general to help a real estate investor. And then there’s the divorce from Republican state Senator Angela Paxton, which, according to court documents, was due to allegations of his infidelity. He’s made a name for himself as AG by really politicizing the position, often using his power to go after Democrats and alleged undocumented immigrants.

DETROW: And last night, he beat out longtime Senator John Cornyn in this runoff. It wasn’t even close. What do you think that tells us about the general election?

GAINEY: You know, I think what it really says is that, you know, in a Republican primary runoff, it’s going to be the most extreme voters that come out and vote. And therefore, we get the most extreme candidate, which – Paxton, with the Trump endorsement, sort of gets that nod. But the real question will be, moving forward, whether or not Republicans as a whole will choose to back him. Remember, this is a runoff, so only about 1.4 million people cast ballots in this race. In the general election, it’ll be a lot closer to 8 million people. That’s what we saw in 2022.

DETROW: James Talarico got a lot of attention when he won the Democratic primary earlier this year. Tell us more about his background, how he’s approaching this.

GAINEY: Yeah. He’s a 37-year-old Democrat, doesn’t have a long political career like Paxton, obviously, but he has made a name for himself in the state. He started back when he was first elected to the Texas state House, defeating a Republican incumbent in a district that, at the time, was considered red.

DETROW: Democrats are now thinking, you know, do they have a chance to win the seat? Of course, they’ve thought that in previous cycles, spent a lot of money and lost. How are these two candidates campaigning against each other now?

GAINEY: Yeah. Well, in Paxton’s case, he’s already started talking about Talarico, and that ramped up after President Trump’s endorsement last week. During his victory speech last night, he seemed to workshop a few barbs in front of his supporters.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

KEN PAXTON: My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. He’s even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is.

(LAUGHTER)

GAINEY: Now, that might seem like it’s not a big deal, but we are in Texas, a state that ranks No. 1 in the U.S. for overall livestock production, overwhelmingly dominated by its cattle industry. By the way, the vegan accusation is not true. In fact, Talarico posted a picture of himself eating a turkey leg to disprove the theory, but that isn’t stopping Republicans from painting it the other way.

DETROW: In addition to posing for pictures like that, is – how is Talarico framing Paxton?

GAINEY: Yeah. As a response to Paxton winning last night, Talarico released a new ad targeting his opponent, where he calls out his past controversies.

(SOUNDBITE OF POLITICAL AD, “THE PEOPLE VS. KEN PAXTON”)

JAMES TALARICO: Three years ago, Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party for using his public office to enrich himself and his donors.

GAINEY: Now Paxton avoided actually being impeached that time around, but it’ll still be used against him moving forward in this race.

DETROW: Do these candidates have a chance at swaying many voters?

GAINEY: That’ll be tough. Paxton is very polarizing. Texas is deep red, unlikely to switch over and vote for Talarico. But that’s his best hope, is to try to find those Cornyn voters willing to flip over and vote Democrat in the general.

DETROW: That is The Texas Newsroom’s Blaise Gainey joining us from Austin. Thank you so much.

GAINEY: Thanks for having me.

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