It’s time for some home cooking.
After three straight road games, the Patriots will kick off in Gillette Stadium for the first time since their four-game win streak began with a blowout of the Panthers in late September. Since then, the Pats have established themselves as one of the better teams in the league and an AFC playoff contender. For that, they can thank Drake Maye, who leads the league in completion percentage and deep passing, and has announced himself as an early-season MVP candidate.
But bigger tests loom, starting with a top-5 Browns defense this Sunday. Despite its 2-5 record, Cleveland can throw some punches through one of the fiercest defensive lines in football. Myles Garrett and Co. clowned Miami last weekend, 31-6, and should now force Maye to play smart, disciplined football or otherwise risk turnovers that might invite an upset.
Opposite Maye, the Browns are starting third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel, whose completion percentage is a tick below 60% despite throwing the shortest completions in the league by air yards. While that sounds inviting, Gabriel hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year, and the Patriots’ short pass defense currently ranks third-worst in the league by DVOA. Can they fix that and score another blowout Sunday?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
A repeat 175-yard rushing performance from last week? Unlikely.
But all the Patriots must do is tread water against the NFL’s best run defense to give Maye enough time and reason to use play-action. Rhamondre Stevenson broke seven tackles last weekend in Tennessee, running more freely than he had been the previous two weeks. The Browns’ defense is the best tackling unit in the league, per Pro Football Focus, but if the coaching staff has more confidence in rookie TreVeyon Henderson, perhaps he can finally break free and simply pull away from would-be tacklers.
Henderson’s elite speed has yet to be fully weaponized in this offense due to his own mistakes and lack of touches. He has just 56 rushing yards this month. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels hinted this week the second-round pick would be more involved, after playing just nine offensive snaps last weekend.
“Runners get into a rhythm,” McDaniels said Thursday. “And sometimes that happens. I know TreVeyon has led us in carries in other games, and certainly Rhamondre did last week. So, there’s nothing specific. I think all those guys are continuing to work really hard. They play an active role in us improving ourselves in the running game.”
When the Patriots pass
If Drake Maye checks the ball down a little faster Sunday, this is why.
The Browns’ most direct path to an upset involves a strip sack or two, and Maye, who got hit a few too many times in Tennessee, will be extra aware of the pass rush this week. Garrett has five sacks this season, despite facing more chips and double-teams than any other pass rusher in the league. Browns defensive tackle Maliek Collins is also among the league leaders in pressure rate at his position.
Both Garrett and Collins should see plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities against rookie offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson on Sunday, a major battleground Sunday. The Patriots can try to offset that pressure with screens, misdirection and quick passing. But ultimately it’s up to Maye to pull the right lever and get rid of the ball before trouble arrives.
“Just be cognizant of the point of the play, (be) good in quick game, (be) good when we are trying to hold it a little longer. Just know the outlets,” Maye said. “We talk about outlets, scramble, throwaways and just being smart with the football. They do a good job of going after the football, especially Myles in his career. Just go two hands on it, knowing the outlets and knowing when the play may be over.”
One fun battle on the outside: Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte versus Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward. If the Browns continue to play a high rate of man-to-man coverage, as they have most of the year, Diggs and Boutte will have opportunities to make plays 1-on-1 downfield. And you better believe Maye will give them a chance to go deep and catch one.
When the Browns run
Few running backs are breaking as many tackles right now as bruising Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins.
Judkins is forcing three and a half misses per game, according to PFF, and will test the Patriots’ newly refortified tackling. The Pats have whiffed just five times the last two weeks combined, and know that slowing the 221-pound Judkins will be critical against one of the NFL’s least explosive offenses trying to methodically kill clock through small gains.
“I know that they’ll have a good plan for how they want to run it. It’s a physical group of linemen and their tight ends are blocking well,” Vrabel said this week. “And Quinshon is running hard, physical. So, they’ve done a nice job.”
On the season, Judkins has rushed for 467 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.3 yards per carry. No other Browns player has taken more than 25 carries this season or rushed for 75 yards.
When the Browns pass
It’s all about the middle of the field.
The Browns’ top targets have been their tight ends, between rookie Harold Fannin (32 catches, 290 yards) and David Njoku (23 catches, 223 yards). While Njoku was limited this week in practice, the Browns should test the Patriots’ 30th-ranked short pass defense by DVOA through their tight ends and veteran receiver Jerry Jeudy. Gabriel also has the second-fastest snap-to-throw time in the NFL at an average 2.6 seconds, meaning the Pats must break quickly on short routes to make tackles.
Look for their linebackers and safeties to tell the story of this game.
That said, the Patriots’ overall defensive talent far outweighs Cleveland’s skill group, and the Browns’ pass offense ranks second-worst in the NFL. Barring a breakout Gabriel performance or a few trick plays that generate a touchdown or two, the Pats should control the air by playing simple, sound football. And that will especially hold true if Christian Gonzalez (one pass breakup this season) finally returns to form, as his position coach suggested Thursday.
Game pick
Patriots 20, Browns 16
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